Turbulent times: how eventprofs can get ahead of the weather

Four months prior and half a world away, the tarmac at Dubai International Airport was submerged following the heaviest rainfall in the region in 75 years. Approximately 1,200 flights were impacted, roads were impassable, hotels and venues were flooded and at least three major business events were cancelled, including Middle East Energy, featuring more than 1,500 exhibitors and participants from over 90 countries. 

An assessment report by researchers from nine countries determined the rainfall event was 10-40 per cent more intense than it would have been had it occurred in an El Nino year, in a 1.2°C cooler climate. Their report provides regional evidence of a global trend scientists have observed: that extreme rainfall events are becoming more likely and severe due to human-caused climate change. 

Research suggests a global mean temperature rise of 2°C would place 100 airports below mean sea level. Among those most at risk include Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport, Shanghai’s Hongqiao and Pudong International airports, Louis Armstrong New Orleans International, Amsterdam Schiphol, Newark Liberty International, and London City. 

The vulnerability of low-lying airports has hit home before. In 2012 storm surge from Hurricane Sandy closed LaGuardia airport for three days, affecting approximately 1,200 flights. Coastal flooding also cancelled the New Jersey Education Association and New Jersey State League of Municipalities conferences in Atlantic City. At least 98 events were reported as disrupted by the storm, not including 2,300 weddings that were put on hold and widespread closures on Broadway, causing $8.5 million in losses. Research shows that climate change caused approximately 10cm of coastal sea level rise in the 100 years prior to Sandy. This caused 71,000 more people to be affected by the storm, adding $8 billion in damages. 

From runway damage in London to cancelled flights in Phoenix, and adjusted takeoff trajectories in Las Vegas that may cause delays, extreme heat also affects airport operations in multiple ways. This is particularly concerning given July 2024 saw the highest global surface temperature since records began in 1850, making it the 14th consecutive record-warm month.  

Concern about climate change is also fuelling protests - and airports have become targets. In July activists mobilised to disrupt flights across Europe, demanding stronger action to curb emissions. 

And if that were not enough, there are also signs that severe-or-greater clear air turbulence has increased by 55 per cent between 1979–2020, particularly over the North Atlantic and continental USA. This has led researchers to suspect climate change may be a contributing factor.  

While accidents due to severe turbulence are rare, incidents such as occurred on Singapore Airlines flight 321 in May, where one man died and more than 100 people required medical care, are enough to keep the fearful off a plane altogether.