Nearly three million jobs could be lost in the UK travel and tourism sector if barriers to global travel, such as quarantine measures and blanket anti-travel advisories remain in place, according to new research from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
The figure comes from WTTC economic modelling, which looks at the impact faced by the travel and tourism sector amid local and global travel restrictions as a result of Covid-19.
In the worst-case scenario, where restrictions are lifted after the summer, the impact would be more significant – putting a total of 2.9 million jobs at risk. The research also shows that if travel restrictions were removed sooner, it could save 1.7m jobs.
The impact of prolonged travel restrictions could also wipe out $186 billion in the sector’s contribution to UK GDP, equating to a 73 per cent percent drop compared with 2019.
Meanwhile, the UK would suffer a sharp decline in visitor numbers of 73 per cent for international arrivals and 71 per cent for domestic arrivals.
Gloria Guevara, WTTC president and CEO, said: “Our new modelling reveals the depth of the long-term crisis facing the UK travel and tourism industry if travel restrictions, such as the 14-day quarantine measures introduced by Government this week and the FCO travel advisory continue for some time.
“The sector’s recovery risks being undermined by heavy-handed restrictions just as it emerges from one of the most punishing periods in its history – and it’s not just airlines who will bear the cost but the entire travel ecosystem.
“Hotels, destinations and travel agents will all suffer from the economic domino effect of prolonged restrictions on movement, plunging millions of travel businesses and their employees into financial ruin.”
The WTTC came up with three possible outcomes for the sector:
1. Worst-case scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from September for short-haul travel, from October for mid-haul and from November for long-haul.
2. Baseline scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from July for short-haul or regional travel; from August for mid-haul, and from September for long-haul.
In this scenario, a total of 1.9 million jobs could be lost in the sector, with a loss of $126 billion in GDP. Meanwhile, UK visitor numbers would drop by 57 per cent for international arrivals and by 45 per cent for domestic arrivals.
3. Best-case scenario: Current measures starting to ease from June for short-haul and regional travel; from July for mid-haul and from August for long-haul.
In this scenario, a total of 1.6 million jobs could be lost, almost half the number in the worst-case scenario, with a loss of $106 billion in GDP. Meanwhile, UK visitor numbers would drop by 49 per cent for international arrivals.
Guevara added: “We’re calling on the Government to remove its quarantine policy as soon as possible to minimise the impact to its economy, which is currently putting the UK at a distinct competitive disadvantage.
“Instead, we recommend the opening of ‘travel corridors’ to countries which have controlled the spread and immediate support for the entire travel and tourism ecosystem to kick-start the UK’s economic recovery.”
M&IT editor Paul Harvey is a journalist with more than 15 years of experience. He began his career in the local press, working for various titles across the north. Since joining M&IT in 2013, he has become a trusted and respected voice in the sector, championing event professionals and reporting on all aspects of the events industry for the brand.
